California’s Demographic Future: Ethnic & Racial Change in the School-Age Population

Executive Summary

The ethnoracial composition of California has seen decades of change mainly due to large waves of immigrants from Asia and Central and South America. While many states have experienced population decline, particularly among the youth and working-age populations, California has grown. However, small changes have begun to occur within the state, including smaller migration flows and falling birth rates. Population changes among school-age children have significant policy implications for a multitude of community institutions, including education, healthcare, and community planning.

What should schools and educators across California expect over the coming decades? How is the school-age population (ages 5-18) expected to change with respect to its ethnoracial composition, generational status, home language, and educational attainment? Employing an innovative microsimulation model, we project a small increase in the number of California’s school-age children in 2050 and very little change in ethnoracial diversity due to the current state of ethnoracial heterogeneity across the state.

A summary of findings (ES) and full report are attached.