Confronting the Graduation Rate Crisis in California
March 24, 2005
Confronting the Graduation Rate Crisis in California
Every year, across the country, a dangerously high percentage of students—disproportionately poor and minority—disappear from the educational pipeline before graduating from high school. Nationally, only about 68% of all students who enter 9th grade will graduate “on time” with regular diplomas in 12th grade. While the graduation rate for white students is 75%, only approximately half of Black, Latino, and Native American students earn regular diplomas alongside their classmates. Graduation rates are even lower for Black, Latino and Native American males. Yet, because of misleading and inaccurate reporting of dropout and graduation rates, the public remains largely unaware of this educational and civil rights crisis.
This crisis may be even less apparent in California because, officially, the state reports a robust overall graduation rate of 86.9%. However, this rate is based upon a flawed National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) formula that dramatically underestimates the actual numbers of dropouts. When the more accurate Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI—see next section) is used, the overall graduation rate is 71% for 2002, which is slightly above the national average. In fact, according to a recent study released by ETS, California is one of only seven states in the country where the overall graduation rate has improved from 1992 to 2002 (from 64% to 71%).
Nonetheless, graduation rates in individual districts and schools—particularly those with high minority concentrations—remain at crisis level proportions. Only 64% of all students in central city districts graduate with regular diplomas. In racially segregated districts, only 65% of all students graduate, and only 58% graduate in socio-economically segregated districts. According to Professor Robert Balfanz of Johns Hopkins University, Black and Latino students are 3 times more likely then White students to attend a high school where graduation is not the norm and where less than 60% of ninth graders obtain diplomas four years later. Another independent study by Dr. Julie Mendoza of the University of California All Campus Consortium on Research for Diversity (UC/ACCORD) finds that in the state’s largest district, Los Angeles, only 48% of Black and Latino students who start 9th grade complete grade 12 four years later. The exodus of Los Angeles youth from school is especially pronounced between grades 9 and 10, which means that they are leaving school ill prepared for all but the most menial jobs. And, even among the Black and Latino youth who complete high school in Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), only one in five have met the curriculum requirements to qualify for admission to a four year public university in California.
California’s failure to graduate so many of its students is a tragic story of wasted human potential and tremendous economic loss. When high numbers of youth leave school ill-prepared to contribute to our labor force and to civic life, our economy and our democracy suffer. Life opportunities for these youth and for their offspring are dramatically curtailed. According to Russell Rumberger, Professor at the University of California at Santa Barbara, the 66,657 students who were reported as dropouts from the California public schools in the 2002-03 will cost the state $14 billion in lost wages. These costs rise significantly when one considers that the actual number of students who leave school without diplomas is much higher than the estimates provided by the state. Since the greatest economic benefits of earning a high school diploma as are realized in the next generation, the most significant loss is to their—and our— future.
In compliance with the UC Open Access Policy, this report has been made available on eScholarship:
