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The Civil Rights Project Proyecto Derechos Civiles
Research report
Demographic Studies
The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of the School-Age Population in the U.S.
Jennifer Van Hook, Alain Bélanger, Patrick Sabourin, Nicolas Patoine Hamel, Gary Orfield (Foreword)

Summary

The racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. population is rapidly changing in response to decades of sustained large-scale immigration. In 1950, non-Hispanic Whites made up the vast majority of the population (90%). As of 2020, non-Hispanic Whites made up 58 percent of the nation’s population, and the Census Bureau projects that they will compose only half by 2044 (Colby & Ortman, 2015). These trends are occurring even more quickly for children and young adults. As early as 2018, non-Hispanic Whites made up less than half (49.9%) of the nation’s population under age 15.

What should schools and educators anticipate over the next three decades? How is the school-aged population (ages 5-17) likely to change with respect to its racial and ethnic composition, generational status, home language, and educational attainment? Employing an innovative microsimulation model, we project both growing diversity for most places in the country, and reductions in the sociocultural distances between racial and ethnic groups.

This report is part of a series of research papers, A Civil Rights Agenda for the Next Quarter Century, commissioned and published by the Civil Rights Project/Proyecto Derechos Civiles and commemorating its 25th anniversary.

 

In compliance with the UC Open Access Policy, this report has been made available on eScholarship: http://escholarship.org/uc/item/3b63v3kc

The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of the School-Age Population in the U.S.
Report – The Changing Racial & Ethnic Composition of the School-Age Population in the U.S.
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Executive Summary – The Changing Racial & Ethnic Composition of the School-Age Population
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About the Series: A Civil Rights Agenda for the Next Quarter Century
In commemoration of its 25th Anniversary, the CRP has launched two large sets of commissioned work. The first is a series on the potential for social change and equity policies in the nation. The second set of studies focuses on California, a vast state whose astonishing diversity foretells the future of the U.S. and whose profound inequality warns that there is much work to be done.
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