The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of the School-Age Population in the U.S.

Summary

The racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. population is rapidly changing in response to decades of sustained large-scale immigration. In 1950, non-Hispanic Whites made up the vast majority of the population (90%). As of 2020, non-Hispanic Whites made up 58 percent of the nation’s population, and the Census Bureau projects that they will compose only half by 2044 (Colby & Ortman, 2015). These trends are occurring even more quickly for children and young adults. As early as 2018, non-Hispanic Whites made up less than half (49.9%) of the nation’s population under age 15.

What should schools and educators anticipate over the next three decades? How is the school-aged population (ages 5-17) likely to change with respect to its racial and ethnic composition, generational status, home language, and educational attainment? Employing an innovative microsimulation model, we project both growing diversity for most places in the country, and reductions in the sociocultural distances between racial and ethnic groups. 

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